Monday, March 31, 2008

Current Holdings

Before I get into what I hold etc. again, I just want to express the thought that it might not be a good idea to be posting my trades. Simply because I don't have the time to be writing them in here as soon as I do them. Which to some, could be seen as hindsight trading. Not that I think this is true in this instance, because I do generally post my entries and exits on Aussie Stock Forums, mainly, just not regularly enough on here.

However, soon, I want to start some experimental portfolios, which I will post on. They will be more to do with a fundamental buy and hold strategy, with an emphasis on ethical considerations, and also one to do with selections in relation to a forward looking bias on the sustainability issue i.e. stocks and sectors that I think will perform well given my thoughts.


Anyway, as my last post explained, I had virtually purged all of my trades, leaving the short on QGC as my only open trade. The exit was taken out last Tuesday for a 4.5R win, which I am more than happy with. I entered BOQ and WBC that day. Crazy perhaps? Probably. The rationale being, the XFJ is coming very close to very long term support. So we should expect at least a pity rally from here. I was thinking perhaps as much as 10%. WBC and BOQ especially, looked to be the strongest technically, so they were the obvious choices. My entry on BOQ is lucky enough to now be below my stop, so barring a gap, I should at least get a small win. My entry on WBC however, does not look very flash. It has potentially blown off, and has a gap below to fill - which makes setting a stop on this now a nightmare.

Never the less, both have set higher highs, off rounding bottoms, where the downside momentum seems to have eased. It will count for nothing though if we test the January lows, and go through them.

Given IB has been very bad with not offering any shortable stocks for the last period, I had to be especially prudent with the risk management. Only half lots were bought for shares of this type, for me. And given the volatility, it may be a good move.

The week ahead looks pretty quiet, as I can't short, and there don't seem to be any obvious longs. I'm expecting to be out of WBC by Wednesday, and maybe or maybe not for BOQ. I'm also looking for ways to get short oil, because I think there is a good entry if it goes below $100. A very good chance of that happening if we get some of these hedge funds rolling over. I may stick to the futures intraday on that, but I don't fancy the late nights and screen time.

Anyway, I think that is all.

Cheers.

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