Showing posts with label trades. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trades. Show all posts

Monday, March 31, 2008

Current Holdings

Before I get into what I hold etc. again, I just want to express the thought that it might not be a good idea to be posting my trades. Simply because I don't have the time to be writing them in here as soon as I do them. Which to some, could be seen as hindsight trading. Not that I think this is true in this instance, because I do generally post my entries and exits on Aussie Stock Forums, mainly, just not regularly enough on here.

However, soon, I want to start some experimental portfolios, which I will post on. They will be more to do with a fundamental buy and hold strategy, with an emphasis on ethical considerations, and also one to do with selections in relation to a forward looking bias on the sustainability issue i.e. stocks and sectors that I think will perform well given my thoughts.


Anyway, as my last post explained, I had virtually purged all of my trades, leaving the short on QGC as my only open trade. The exit was taken out last Tuesday for a 4.5R win, which I am more than happy with. I entered BOQ and WBC that day. Crazy perhaps? Probably. The rationale being, the XFJ is coming very close to very long term support. So we should expect at least a pity rally from here. I was thinking perhaps as much as 10%. WBC and BOQ especially, looked to be the strongest technically, so they were the obvious choices. My entry on BOQ is lucky enough to now be below my stop, so barring a gap, I should at least get a small win. My entry on WBC however, does not look very flash. It has potentially blown off, and has a gap below to fill - which makes setting a stop on this now a nightmare.

Never the less, both have set higher highs, off rounding bottoms, where the downside momentum seems to have eased. It will count for nothing though if we test the January lows, and go through them.

Given IB has been very bad with not offering any shortable stocks for the last period, I had to be especially prudent with the risk management. Only half lots were bought for shares of this type, for me. And given the volatility, it may be a good move.

The week ahead looks pretty quiet, as I can't short, and there don't seem to be any obvious longs. I'm expecting to be out of WBC by Wednesday, and maybe or maybe not for BOQ. I'm also looking for ways to get short oil, because I think there is a good entry if it goes below $100. A very good chance of that happening if we get some of these hedge funds rolling over. I may stick to the futures intraday on that, but I don't fancy the late nights and screen time.

Anyway, I think that is all.

Cheers.

Sunday, March 9, 2008

Current Holdings and Recent Trades


I thought I’d take the time to have a look at my current trades, and my rationale for the next little while.

Currently my open trades are shorts on AMP and QGC, with longs on IPL, NXS and ORI. I have quite a few other holdings, but I don’t consider them open because they are free carried. I also sold out of Potash on Thursday night, which was a small gain in USD, but probably a loss with currency conversion.

It’s the two shorts that I’m mostly interested in. I entered the short on AMP in early February and QGC on Friday.

AMP

Although technically, I think AMP has quite a way to fall, as with most if not all of the financials, I’m looking at some kind of bounce soon. It is on horizontal support, although that is not hugely strong, and on a 50% Fibonacci retracement line from the lows of 2003.

It also gapped down onto support, which leaves open the possibility of a blow off bottom, or an island reversal, and a hard counter trend rally. However, as you can see from the charts, it is quite a way from anywhere you could have trailing stops. There also appears to be little stopping volume on this last lunge down, which indicates a lack of interest.

So my bias for this is a rally in the very short term, with a continuation through support eventually. If it gaps up above the highs from Friday, I will look to get out. If not, I will continue to hold.




QGC

Purely playing this as a gap fill. I’ve traded QGC many times, and like it quite a bit. However, that gap stands out like a beacon. With a lot of nervousness, and energy possibly coming off a tad, I’d say all the potential is to the downside.

It has had very little volume since that initial gap, apart from top selling. And in the sideways move, volume has increased, which indicates distribution. The news that they are downgrading sales was not well received, and probably in this market will continue not to be in the short term.

The break of the 20 day low was a clear sell signal for me, as is the lowest close since the large gap. However, a stop out here would mandate a long. A chance for a rebound off the 38% retrace as well.

Target is between the fib retracement at $3.30 and the pennant target at around $3.




IPL, NXS and ORI are not in any huge danger, so there is no need to comment on them for the moment. But, as with all things at the moment, it can change very quickly.

Cheers.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Gold and an Entry on LGL

Sorry blog, I've been ignoring you of late. Due mainly to a lack of trading and study commitments. But here I am again anyway.

Through luck or good fortune, I took a trade on LGL last week. I'm not sure if anyone has been following on ASF, but I have been long on Gold and energy stocks for pretty much all of this year. And after the China 3 day collapse, I even decided to take up coin collecting. So have been putting quite a bit of my trading profit towards this, due to a long term punt on precious metals.

Anyway, due to many factors, most of the blue chip gold stocks began looking technically very strong. So it was back into LGL I went. It meets my criteria, environmentally aware (geothermal power) and also a good corporate citizen (helping to develop its region in PNG for the benefit of the local people). And the easiest thing to do when one of your favourite stocks looks strong, is to buy it on the breakout. Easy. And now, with the USD under pressure, energy stocks through the roof, middle east tension, and a potential inflation genie, the spot gold price looks good for at least a little while.



There are a couple of things that worry me about the chart, and gold in particular. For one, a rocket under the gold price has a tendency to bring markets down... which end up tanking the gold price and gold equities with it. The second, is the manipulation the gold price is clearly prone to. In regards to the chart, it appears there should be some resistance at these levels, and there is also a gap fill. Where to from here? Who knows? But it's good to have a proper trade on again. Will be looking for gold to get above 750US an ounce, and we'll see how it is looking once/ if there.

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