Measuring the Incalculable; Valuing the Intangible!

As stated many times during the course of the year, it had been my strategy to trade eco-stocks coming into the federal election. Some like CNM popped a bit earlier than I expected, and others like BBW didn’t seem to go anywhere at all. But now it looks as if there is perhaps a second charge brewing. I’d say it will coincide with the hype surrounding the Bali conference, which would make sense. But it could very well create a sector bull run for quite some time to come. Couple this with a new sustainability index in Australia, and you have a perfect storm for these eco-stocks.

Before I get into a run down on some of these, I probably should give a round up of my last large group of trades, in the Gold sector. Whilst the market was chopping and churning, there was really only one thing to me that was trending well, Gold. However, with the middle east propping up the USD, this looks to be coming to an end, albeit for only a short time perhaps. I got out of LGL in the high 3’s, as the momentum seemed to leave, but Gold in AUD terms, kept trending.

It now looks as though Gold in AUD, is for the first time in a number of months, headed to set a new lower low, and I will be stopped out in the process. I’m not complaining however, the r/r was fantastic, and the set up almost perfect. They don’t seem to come around very often like that. I suspect that this is going to retreat to between $87 and $85 (The equivalent of an ounce of gold in AUD at $850 to $870), and consolidate before its next move towards the larger break out targets.

Now we can move onto some of the eco-tech type stocks I tend to look at. The first one being COZ, CO2 Group Limited. They develop carbon sinks and sell the credits. At the moment they remain the only leverage you can get to the carbon market on the ASX. As was planned elsewhere, I bought these guys the Friday before the election (a little higher than I wanted unfortunately), and got a 15% pop on the Monday. I don’t think these guys have much short term technical range to move. But certainly, exceeding break out targets looks long term bullish for mine. Perhaps a maximum 10% gain short term, but it looks like it may be one for the trend followers. And certainly if you are looking to gain leverage to the carbon market, it might be worth a punt.

This is perhaps my favourite eco-tech stock, CNM. Carnegie Corp have that CETO technology that you may have seen. It seems to be almost economically viable, and plans are afoot start rolling it out. There aren’t too many of these eco-tech stocks that have truly massive blue sky potential, and a realistic shot at it, but this is one. There is a Bollinger band squeeze on, and it looks to be on the cards for a breakout. I’ll be on it when it breaks out again.

GRK, Green Rock Energy perhaps provides the biggest potential profit in the short term. I don’t know too much about it, aside from the fact that is a geothermal company. But technically it looks good for a trade. The breakout target is double the current price, it has been consolidating very tightly, and hasn’t looked to dip in the very recent market turmoil.

The final stock I’m going to look at is GDY. Once again, a geothermal stock in a long term uptrend. Potentially only another 15-20% in it for the moment, but it is in an area where it allows tight stops, quick validation or invalidation and therefore a good R/R. It might be one for those trendy types to look at.

As you can see there are quite a few good potential trades out there in the eco-tech arena right now. Hopefully they do well in the near future. Happy trading.

Posted by Glen at 9:14 AM 0 comments    

Labels: eco-tech

Posted by Glen at 6:16 AM 2 comments    

Labels: hardware

Posted by Glen at 12:30 AM 0 comments    

Labels: recreation

Sorry blog, I've been ignoring you of late. Due mainly to a lack of trading and study commitments. But here I am again anyway.

Through luck or good fortune, I took a trade on LGL last week. I'm not sure if anyone has been following on ASF, but I have been long on Gold and energy stocks for pretty much all of this year. And after the China 3 day collapse, I even decided to take up coin collecting. So have been putting quite a bit of my trading profit towards this, due to a long term punt on precious metals.

Anyway, due to many factors, most of the blue chip gold stocks began looking technically very strong. So it was back into LGL I went. It meets my criteria, environmentally aware (geothermal power) and also a good corporate citizen (helping to develop its region in PNG for the benefit of the local people). And the easiest thing to do when one of your favourite stocks looks strong, is to buy it on the breakout. Easy. And now, with the USD under pressure, energy stocks through the roof, middle east tension, and a potential inflation genie, the spot gold price looks good for at least a little while.



There are a couple of things that worry me about the chart, and gold in particular. For one, a rocket under the gold price has a tendency to bring markets down... which end up tanking the gold price and gold equities with it. The second, is the manipulation the gold price is clearly prone to. In regards to the chart, it appears there should be some resistance at these levels, and there is also a gap fill. Where to from here? Who knows? But it's good to have a proper trade on again. Will be looking for gold to get above 750US an ounce, and we'll see how it is looking once/ if there.

Posted by Glen at 5:52 AM 7 comments    

Labels: Gold, trades

Posted by Glen at 9:01 PM 3 comments    

What a journey I have before me here, and what a learning curve I will have to be on for the majority of this. As staring before me, a pathway is littered with ideas, postulations and premises I never could have comprehended merely 6 months ago. But life doesn’t pause despite this realisation; the love of wisdom doesn’t attenuate; nor does the addition of knowledge cease. Which leads to more questions like: why am I here? How did I get here and what the hell does my blog title even mean? If it does in fact mean anything at all! Obviously, I plan to explain the answers to these questions in due time. It will be for me, The Long Walk.

In order for a lot of my ongoing positions and statements to make sense later, it is going to be important to explain some basics, and also for the reader to try to understand them. Nominalism being the main one (Plato’s Cratylus is significant in developing this); the opposite concept, “metaphysical realism”, is the ability for objects to exist independently of our experience or knowledge of these objects, irrespective of the concepts in which we understand them - which is the position I am now going to take. However, this can be argued against through idealism, nominalism and the associating immaterialism. The latter is a position that I think can be held in regard to the markets, and largely is but incorrectly, which will be discussed later. But for the time being, we will have to assume the basic building blocks for this blog i.e. the words in the title; do have some actual purchase in their application.

Which brings us to the question I want to introduce today, “How do we measure the incalculable?” Logic or even rationality would dictate we can’t; yet we do on a day to day basis. Which leads to us wondering, what mechanisms do we as humans have or use to make such an evaluation? Does it help if we break down the words? (If you read this blog long enough, you will understand I’m a big fan of etymology.) The word “measure” does not give us much help in itself, except at any given time to provide us with a “standard”. This must place the tension on the word, “incalculable”, root word being calculus, which does have a rich history. Quite literally, meaning “little stone” or “pebble” which was used for tabulating votes, especially in reckoning. Hence the negative connotation associated with a “calculating” person. So incalculable would logically mean, “without end”. “Without ends”, an interesting concept wouldn’t you say? Especially for someone concerned with ethics? So, does this mean we can measure the incalculable because there is no end point? Is it because the process along the way is more existent and important than a “non-ending”?

Unfortunately, I have not been able to answer the question here. All I have done is open a can of worms, and not just in regards to ethical investing, but towards markets and economics/ investing as a whole. It is not to say I don’t have a possible answer, but that it deserves its own post. Until that soon day, I bid you adieu. I did warn you, this will be The Long Walk.

Regards,
Glen.

P.S. do you think bull markets have “reckonings” built into them?

Posted by Glen at 12:00 AM 5 comments    

Labels: incalculable, measuring, philosophy